Investing used to be about having useful information and acting on it. Now information is abundant and delivery is measured by the millisecond. Investing is now about temperament, self-awareness and discipline; things that cannot be bought. How else would you be able to stay invested with “high” valuations in a long bull market? Here’s why: […]

With talk of extreme valuations in equity markets abound, you would think the past decade has been the most wild and euphoric bull market in some time. Here’s the hitch: in the decade ended December 31, 2016, SPY has returned 6.86% annually.  Yes, we saw a crash and subsequent slow grind to all time highs, […]

Perhaps the prominence of momentum and the obscurity of value investing lately is telling us something. Perhaps I’m following  human nature and trying to connect two unrelated things  time will tell. Companies who innovate and adopt technology will survive and if the old stalwarts don’t they may die. Conversely, maybe momentum is working because of […]

To experiment in a statistically valid fashion, one should gather robust data that spans long time frames. When P/E ratios are referenced to history, they tend to go back a century. A century ago 8% of households have a landline telephone. A century ago the first supermarket was founded. A century ago the hamburger buns […]

In a Barron’s Roundtable article dated January 23rd 2017, Jeffrey Gundlach mentioned that he thinks yields are too high based one one of the metrics he follows. To gain this estimate of what direction the 10 year Treasury may move in, he watches the ratio of copper prices to gold prices.  When the article came […]

It’s easy to give an answer, but admitting you don’t know something is a skill few possess. Further, the habit of asking questions is even more scarce. Curiosity and persistence may well be the recipe for new answers, but first must come a question. Here goes episode #1: Are stocks expensive at these levels? Well, […]

“The definition of Genius is taking the complex and making it simple.” Albert Einstein     On the 8th anniversary of this bull market many investors are looking for reasons for it to end. Being one of the longest bull markets (if you don’t count the The Bear Market that Nobody Talks About), this is to […]